Chaos rules as new era emerges

Opinion

Joe Biden speaking during a debate with the shadow of Donald Trump behind him

Image: Jim Watson/AFP via Getty Images

Image: Jim Watson/AFP via Getty Images

UQ graduate Elliot Stein analyses what a Joe Biden presidency will mean for Australia. But first, the President-elect has to replace Donald Trump in the White House.


If the weeklong ‘election night’ felt chaotic and unsettling, it will be nothing compared to the weeks ahead as Joe Biden prepares to be sworn in as US President. The transition process – once governed by laws, norms and good faith – is being sidelined and the US will start 2021 weaker and more divided than ever.

Australia and the liberal democratic world should be set to benefit from a more stable, more consistent ally and returned world leader under the presidency of Joe Biden.

However, the outgoing Trump administration, Congressional obstructionism and ongoing stoking of domestic unrest will distract and hamstring the new US Government.

For Australia, the challenge is capturing the attention of the new administration and overcoming some self-inflicted headwinds.

President-elect Biden faces the greatest concurrent set of threats of any incoming President in US history. They fall into four key areas as he prepares to enter the Oval Office in January 2021.

The threats


First, the health threat of COVID-19 that rages and spreads exponentially heading into its third major peak this winter.

Second, the economic crisis ravaging the country, with disproportionate impacts on the most vulnerable citizens and a clear inequity towards people of colour.

Third, the legal and political shenanigans of President Trump throwing sand in the gearbox of a peaceful transition.

Finally, the domestic and international security threat caused by the current administration’s dismantling of the public service and active withdrawal of American leadership globally.

Michael Lewis’ excellent book, The Fifth Risk, published before the COVID-19 pandemic, exposed some terrifying examples of how active or passive neglect of the civil service exposed America to harm.

From the national weather service to oversight of America’s nuclear arsenal, there has been a hollowing out of the federal public service under the Trump Presidency.

Image: Getty Images/Drew Angerer/Staff

Joe Biden looks sternly into the middle distance

The transition


The transition process, normally a complex but largely orderly three month-long exercise, has been stymied by political appointees directed by President Trump which will have the effect of leaving America weaker and more exposed than in any other moment.

The transition is being slow walked in two key ways.

First, the presidential daily briefing – the thick collection of the most classified national and domestic security threats from across intelligence agencies – is not being shared with Biden.

Second, the humbly named General Services Administration is refusing to commence the legal public service transition of power. This denies the hundreds of incoming Biden administration personnel access to their outgoing counterparts and confidential briefings. It also denies a seamless takeover of American power.

These aren’t just arcane niceties. For Australia, this means many of our key US interlocutors – from the Secretary of State to the Ambassador to Australia and the hundreds of appointees supporting them – could be delayed in commencing their roles, leaving them behind the eight ball on regional issues.

The US Government has hundreds and hundreds of political appointees at its helm, appointed by the President of the day. A clean handover from one administration to another ensures that the US is not exposed to needless risks, both foreign and domestic. Further, it allows the new administration the best hope of enacting its priorities swiftly.

From the halls of the United Nations to the seas of the South Pacific, countries are relying on a return of assertive leadership from the US, especially in places where non-liberal democracies like China and Russia have capitalised on a vacuum.

Early priorities for the incoming Biden administration range from the practical to the rhetorical as part of an overall restoration of US global leadership. As President, Biden has said he will move to re-join the Paris Climate Agreement and the World Health Organization.

Facing towards Europe, Biden will need to urgently reaffirm a commitment to NATO, as well as try to piece together the Iran Nuclear Deal and normalise fractured relationships with allies and partners around the world.

Image: Getty Images/ Pool

Donald Trump looks over his shoulder

What can Australia expect?


For Australia and the non-China Asia Pacific region, while we can be the beneficiaries of a calmer and more normative policy approach, we should not expect to be the focus of the next four years under Biden.

The days of the American pivot to Asia witnessed under President Obama are unlikely to materialise as a top priority, unless there is a concerted effort from the Australian Government to court the new administration.

The pressures for Biden are significant. His four policy pillars during the transition period to the White House are COVID-19, economic recovery, racial equity and climate change. Three are domestic and one is now out of kilter with the Australian Government.

The Australian Government’s frequent siding with the Trump administration in global forums to slow progressive action on climate change is now wildly out of step with the new administration.

An image of Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison with US President Donald Trump and the First Lady Melania Trump.

Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison with US President Donald Trump and the First Lady Melania Trump. Image: Getty Images/Alex Wong/Staff

Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison with US President Donald Trump and the First Lady Melania Trump. Image: Getty Images/Alex Wong/Staff

The failure of the Madrid climate talks in 2019 largely fell at the feet of aggressive behaviour from Australia, China, the US and Brazil – even while bushfire smoke smothered Sydney.

Noticeably, Biden’s ‘read out’ of his first formal conversation with Prime Minister Scott Morrison included references to working on climate change, a topic downplayed in the Australian Government’s description of the call.

The Australian Government has already moved to invite Biden to attend an event commemorating the anniversary of the ANZUS Treaty in Australia next September. On the face of it, this should be a positive step. However, the Prime Minister’s decision to announce this invite to the media before raising it with the President-elect – or working on the event via diplomatic backchannels – was striking.

An early visit from Biden would be a boon for the region and for Australia. Yet not all presidential visits align with the policy or political goals of the government of the day.

The President-elect’s former boss, President Obama, felt comfortable enough holding a summit of local youth on the sidelines of the Brisbane G20 in 2014 to deliver a powerful message in support of climate change, despite the opposition of the Abbott Government.

Australia and the US are firm allies and close friends at a social, structural, institutional and military level.

This hasn’t changed under Trump and it won’t change under Biden. However, with a rocky transition and extreme domestic pressures on the new President, there will need to be an uphill effort to make real progress and engagement in the region.

Biden is focused on restoring the ‘soul of the nation’ and ‘restoring American leadership.’ A business-as-usual approach from Australia just won’t cut it with these lofty goals.

Australia needs to manage relationships with our foremost security ally and number-one trading partner in the form of the US and China. It can’t be understated how bipartisan the approach is of a more ‘muscled up’ engagement with China among US policy makers.

At the heart of the US beef is a belief that China seeks to remould the global order to be more in its own image, rather than the post-Bretton Woods age. As the US re-enters multilateral organisations and trade agreements, Australia may find itself being drawn further into siding with the US as it seeks to reassert normative international standards.

Under Trump, much of the positioning towards China has been rhetorical, leaving a large power vacuum on the global stage.

Accordingly, Australia has been able to largely defer significant questions of choosing between an aggrieved and reflexive China and an assertive US. With a more substantive President backed by bipartisan foreign policy elites, and the public at home, that approach could soon end.

Image: Getty Images/ Yaorusheng

An American ship and a Chinese ship face off

Australia and the US are firm allies and close friends at a social, structural, institutional and military level.

This hasn’t changed under Trump and it won’t change under Biden. However, with a rocky transition and extreme domestic pressures on the new President, there will need to be an uphill effort to make real progress and engagement in the region.

Biden is focused on restoring the ‘soul of the nation’ and ‘restoring American leadership.’ A business-as-usual approach from Australia just won’t cut it with these lofty goals.

Australia needs to manage relationships with our foremost security ally and number-one trading partner in the form of the US and China. It can’t be understated how bipartisan the approach is of a more ‘muscled up’ engagement with China among US policy makers.

At the heart of the US beef is a belief that China seeks to remould the global order to be more in its own image, rather than the post-Bretton Woods age. As the US re-enters multilateral organisations and trade agreements, Australia may find itself being drawn further into siding with the US as it seeks to reassert normative international standards.

Under Trump, much of the positioning towards China has been rhetorical, leaving a large power vacuum on the global stage.

Accordingly, Australia has been able to largely defer significant questions of choosing between an aggrieved and reflexive China and an assertive US. With a more substantive President backed by bipartisan foreign policy elites, and the public at home, that approach could soon end.

Image: Getty Images/ Yaorusheng

An American ship and a Chinese ship face off

What will President Trump do?


We have some clues already. The incumbent President is actively sowing seeds of disunity among the American people over the legitimacy of the election. While not enough to win the election, Trump increased his popular vote by more than 10 million people between 2016 and 2020.

He has an established supporter base across the country with whom he is able to communicate with directly. How he directs that audience and how they respond is crucial for the future of US democracy.

Becoming a permanent opposition, particularly through influencing existing and future members of congress and parts of the public at large, will have significant consequences for the ability of Biden to govern.


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About the author


Elliot Stein (Master of Public Policy and Governance ’18) leads Hawker Britton’s practice in Queensland, where he provides strategic advice to business on Queensland Government operation. He has more than 11 years’ experience guiding government and business through major crises and public policy reforms – including as Chief of Staff in the Palaszczuk Government from 2015–17, and as a Senior Adviser in the Rudd and Gillard Governments. Stein has worked in New York City for The Glover Park Group, a strategic communications firm where he worked for corporate clients and foreign governments with US interests, and has also served as the Director of Public Diplomacy to the Australian Consulate-General.